Dye Industry Sees Another Price Surge: Disperse Black Rises Over 56% Year-to-Date
Following the Chinese New Year, the dye industry has experienced a strong price surge. Leading companies implemented another round of price increases in late February, with the flagship product Disperse Black rising by 4,000 RMB per ton, quickly followed by multiple other companies. This marks the second industry-wide price hike within the month.Looking at price trends, the ex-factory quote for Disperse Black ECT300% has climbed from 16,000 RMB per ton at the beginning of the year to 25,000 RMB per ton, a cumulative increase of 56.25%. Data from Baiinfo shows that as of February 25, the average market price of disperse dyes was up 47.06% year-on-year.
1. Price Driver: Soaring Costs of Key Intermediates
The core driver of this price surge is the uncontrolled rise in the cost of upstream key intermediates. Reductant, the most critical intermediate for disperse dyes, has skyrocketed from a low of 25,000 RMB per ton in 2025 to around 70,000 RMB per ton currently, an increase of 150%. Accounting for 20%-30% of dye production costs, the price surge of reductant directly forces dye prices upward.
2. Supply Structure: Highly Concentrated Intermediate Production
Reductant production involves high-risk processes and faces high environmental barriers. Due to increasingly stringent environmental policies in recent years, small and medium-scale producers have been continuously phased out. The market now exhibits a typical oligopoly, with the vast majority of production capacity controlled by a few leading companies. Intermediate producers are strengthening their pricing power through strategies of "controlling supply to support prices."
3. Demand Side: "Golden Three, Silver Four" Season Unleashes Restocking Demand
After the holiday, the traditional peak season known as "Golden Three, Silver Four" has begun in the textile printing and dyeing industry. Operating rates at dyeing and printing enterprises in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region have rebounded rapidly. As price hike expectations form, downstream companies are shifting from "purchasing on demand" to "active restocking," further intensifying the tight supply-demand situation in the market.
4. Industry Impact: Advantages of Leading Companies Highlighted
This round of price increases is exacerbating differentiation within the industry: leading companies with upstream integration capabilities hold a distinct advantage, effectively hedging against raw material price risks. In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises lacking self-sufficiency face the dilemma of "high-priced procurement and low-priced sales," which is expected to further increase industry concentration.
The capital market responded positively. On February 26, the disperse dye concept saw a sharp rally, with multiple stocks hitting their daily upside limits or following the uptrend.
5. Future Outlook
An analyst from SCI99 believes this price surge is a phase-driven by the supply side, expected to last 1-3 months, after which prices may enter a period of high-level consolidation. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities points out that the dye industry has a high degree of supply concentration, and the upstream intermediate sector has an even more favorable structure. The magnitude and sustainability of this price rally could exceed market expectations.
Essence Securities notes in a report that dye intermediates share similarities with citral in the Vitamin A industry chain: complex synthesis processes, highly concentrated production under an oligopoly, high cost proportion for intermediates downstream but extremely low cost proportion of dyes in final garments. This creates a relatively smooth path for price transmission, and the upward price elasticity could surpass expectations.
